Mills has spent the past three seasons in the Indians' minor league system. Mills destroyed pitching in the Carolina League in 2008, but hit a speed bump when a lingering shoulder injury began to flare up. He has since moved from 3B to 1B and spent the entire season at AA in 2009. This spring he has been called upon for the third time to join the big league club in spring training as a non-roster invitee, which has his fans wondering if this could be the year that he breaks into the Major Leagues, even going so far as to imagine whether or not he could be on the big league roster on opening day.
Unfortunately for Mills (and fortunately for the Indians who must love having such depth), he would have to leap frog several players on the Cleveland depth chart this spring. Matt LaPorta has his job nailed down for the foreseeable future. Mills could be valuable for his ability to sub in at third, but the Indians already have a 1B/3B off the bench in Andy Marte. And while Mills is probably the highest-projected first base prospect in the Cleveland organization, if the Indians decide to go with a rookie corner infielder out of training camp it will probably go to the more experienced Jordan Brown, who has already proven himself at AAA.
As you can see, Mills has a logjam to navigate in order to make his way to the big leagues. The odds are not good (this year -- remember that he only has a couple years of minor league ball behind him and his still a highly touted prospect) but let's just imagine what kind of scenario it would take to get him onto the Indians opening day roster. The way I see it, it would take a little luck and a combination of two out of three things to make it all happen.
First, Mills would have to have a tremendous spring. Beau hasn't played above the AA level, and even there he wasn't exactly phenomenal. In order to make the jump straight to the Majors without a AAA stint, bypassing Brown in the process, he would have to prove without a shadow of a doubt that he's ready to hit MLB pitching in the Cactus League this year. In my opinion, he would have to be better than OK or good, he would have to absolutely crush everything.
Second, an injury. Nobody hopes that someone will get injured, but baseball is a physical sport. Human beings are not meant to perform the motions of the sport with the regularity that the high professional level demands. Every player goes into each season knowing that there is a high probability that they will sustain some sort of injury that year. And, although it is bittersweet, that's often how prospects who have been waiting in the wings finally get their short at the bigs. If LaPorta or Marte go down with injury this spring, Mills will rise in the pecking order and that will help his chances. The same could be if DH Travis Hafner goes down.
The third thing that would improve Mills' chances are a trade. Obviously, if the Indians decide to trade away someone ahead of Mills in the depth chart and decide to fill the hole they've created internally, Mills moves up in the rankings. The other side of the coin, though, is that Beau himself could be sent packing. Cleveland could decide that their future is in Jordan Brown and deal Mills to a team without as much organizational depth at 1B. The hot stove is still on for a lot of teams and this isn't entirely out of the question, either.
Make no mistake about it; Mills will make the Major Leagues eventually, barring anything insane like a career-ending injury or a meteor falling on his house. If good enough, I'd predict he'll get his first taste of the big leagues as a call-up this season or the next. But he will probably need some more seasoning in the high minors before making the opening day roster.
My Projections:
In 2010: Will start at AA, hopefully get a promotion to AAA.
Odds to be in MLB on Opening Day: 12%
The crystal ball says: Opening-day Major Leaguer in 2012; late-season call up in 2010/2011.
Photo Courtesy of GoldPanners.com
No comments:
Post a Comment