Before I go on, I just want to have a little disclaimer here...scouting the AFL has some sticky points for a fan blogger. For one thing, I'm not a professional scout, I don't live in Arizona, and writing this blog obviously does not pay enough to cover the cost of catching the games in person. Second of all, the AFL season is short and the rosters are large, meaning it's probably not wise to read too much into any statistics. Which is unfortunate because stats are largely what I have to go on besides the games I saw on TV, and the opinion of scouts as well as other bloggers.
The silver lining in all this is that what you're getting is more opinion than concrete fact, which leaves room for debate, which means you are more than welcome to head to the comments section after this post and leave me your analysis. I would be glad to hear what you've got to say about any of these players, whether we agree or not. So if you're still with me, read on.
...
Mets 1B prospect Ike Davis (Bucs, 2006) had a solid winter in the AFL, hitting .341 in 21 games. Scouts have been split over whether or not Davis will develop into a power hitter; although it is a small sample size, his 4 homers in those games -- taken together with his 20 HR in the 2009 regular season -- suggest that he'll be able to knock a few out of the park, if and when he breaks into the bigs. Ike's performance earned him a spot in the AFL Rising Stars game, and he finished the season out strong. After some struggles early on in his wood bat career, it looks like the Davis that the Mets drafted is really starting to come into focus. I can't find anything wrong with his Fall League season. AFL Season Grade: A
Gary Daley (Pilots, 2005) of the St. Louis organization did not fare as well. His struggles continued in the AFL this season, putting up an 8.01 ERA with 6 walks and 17 hits over 12.1 IP. Daley is simply not getting people out at the professional level the way he did in the college ranks. The silver lining here is the 6 walks, but while it seems that he's able to keep his pitches in the zone more consistently these days it's come at a cost of becoming incredibly hittable. Ryan Boyer at Redbird Roost feels that the Cardinals might cut Daley loose if he doesn't have a breakout season in 2010; here's hoping that Gary can put it all together this offseason and come back strong next year. AFL season grade: D
The Indians' minor league backstop/outfielder Matt McBride (Miners, 2005) tore the cover off the ball in the AFL this year, hitting .378 with 4 homers in 22 games. He put good wood on the ball, racking up a 1.159 OPS. This wasn't his first winter ball rodeo, as he logged a season in the now-defunct Hawaiian league last year. Between his summer ball experiences in college and his winter ball stints as a pro, it seems that McBride really has the work ethic to succeed and is just putting the finishing touches on his game. To top it all off, he's earned a little "extra credit" as a finalist for the AFL's Stenson Award. AFL season grade: A+
Former Bucs (2006) hurler Matt Gorgen did not put up pretty numbers in the AFL this fall: 18 hits at 6 walks over 8.2 IP for a 10.38 ERA. I don't think his stat line tells the whole story, though. As was mentioned above, the AFL doesn't provide much of a sample size for statistics, and this is especially true for relief pitchers. Upsides of his AFL season include 12 strikeouts over that period and a pick for the AFL Rising Stars game. Considering that a year and a half ago Matt was still in college, I think his poor stat line is probably due to a combination of small sample and being one of the lesser seasoned players in the AFL. With that in mind, we'll give him a passing grade. AFL season grade: C
Tuffy Gosewisch (Bucs, 2004), seemed a little more comfortable in the AFL, and for good reason. The backstop grew up in Arizona, played college ball for Arizona State, and has now completed three straight seasons in the Fall League. His average was that of someone who felt right at home -- .318 -- but his other stats were a little iffy, such as his .697 OPS. However, it's likely that Gosewisch was the victim of a slow start to a short season (in which he only appeared in 11 games), as he closed it out strong after falling into a 1-for-11 slump. AFL season grade: B
Eric Niesen, the southpaw who threw for the Bucs in '05, logged only 3.2 innings in four appearances in the AFL. His 24.55 ERA is not impressive in the least, but considering he didn't have a lot of innings of work to go off of, it's hard to say if he was really that awful or if he just had a couple bad outings. With that in mind, I can't really see how it's fair to judge his performance. AFL season grade: Incomplete
Cardinals RHP farmhand Adam Reifer (Oilers, 2005) was another pitcher who was not exactly impressive in his Fall League campaign, posting a 7.59 ERA in 10.2 innings of relief. However, I think there are two things to take into account when analyzing Reifer's campaign. First, he gave up 9 earned on 11 hits and 6 walks (17 runners). In other words, every other guy that he let on base went on to score. That seems a little high to me, which suggests that his ERA was inflated by his inability -- for one reason or another -- to keep runners from scoring once on base. The other thing I would point out is that Reifer hasn't pitched above the single-A level in his minor league career. As I understand it, the AFL is considered mostly AA-AAA talent, and single-A guys are rare. He's not as experienced as most of the guys in this league and that could have a lot to do with his struggles. Although his stat line may not look too hot on the surface, I think he gets a passing grade. AFL season grade: C
Daniel Turpen (Miners, 2006), from the San Fran organization, was one former ABL pitcher who did well in the AFL. While his numbers don't exactly blow me away, they were quite solid. Giving up 14 hits and 8 walks, his 16 innings of work were good enough for a 3.94 ERA. He also managed to strike out 13 and hold opposing batters to an average of .237. Not bad. Not phenomenal, either, but actually pretty good. AFL season grade: B
That brings us to Robbie Weinhardt (Fire, 2006), who I'm picking as my ABL in the AFL MVP for 2009. His stats are really very comparable to Turpen: 3.93 ERA, 17 hits and 7 walks on 18.1 innings. However, there is one notable difference, which is the power: Weinhardt was good for 29 strikeouts in those 18.1 frames. Is that enough to really give him a whole letter grade over Turpen? I don't know, but I saw him close out the last two innings of the AFL Championship game and he looked just plain nasty. Like I said, I can't see him pitch every game but when he's on he is on. AFL season grade: A
Rounding out the list is Blake Wood (Bucs, 2004), a young pitcher out of the Kansas City system. I mentioned in my previous post that I thought Wood was kind of a hit-or-miss prospect; he could be big or he could burn out. I also said that it would be interesting to see what he took way from this Fall League season. Well, the AFL was not entirely kind to him as he posted a 6.75 ERA and opposing batters lit him up to the tune of .345. That being said, Wood redeemed himself with a strong showing down the stretch, giving up only one hit in his final three appearances (4.2 IP). It's also worth noting that five of the 20 hits he surrendered came on one rough outing, making him a victim of the dreaded small sample size we've talked about several times already. Finally, one of Wood's goals in the AFL was to make up innings lost to injury this past season. He didn't show up in the same form that his team mates and opponents did, and I think it just took him a while to find himself. AFL season grade: C+
...
And that about does it for our look at this year's ABL alumni in the Arizona Fall League. I hope that in the process of writing this series, especially in parts one and two, that I didn't come off as overly negative about some former Alaska Leaguers trying to make their way up the ranks. First of all, I feel like these guys are all "our boys" and I would love to see every one of them succeed, whether on the field or off. Second of all, there's nothing wrong with being a "AAAA player" or a "marginal prospect". I only wish I had the talent to be either one of those. But I'm just calling it like I see it. I hope that all the guys that I didn't seem very impressed with prove me wrong, and all the ones I am impressed with prove me right.
One last thought before I go off and have some leftover pumpkin pie: although I have tried my best to give each player a letter grade, how can any of us really know how valuable the season has been to them? You may have noticed that I didn't give anyone an F. I guess I believe that every one of these players is more likely better off having had the AFL experience than before it. I also tried to read more into it than just the stat line (is a guy coming off injury and looking to play catchup? Is someone facing a higher level of competition than they're used to?). But really, I think the only people who can measure the success of an AFL season are the players themselves, and until I line up interviews with all of them (wink wink nudge nudge) we may never know.
OK, that's it. Time to stuff my face! And if you think my analysis sucks, give me a better one in the comments section.
( Photo Credits: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ethorson/ / CC BY-SA 2.0 )
No comments:
Post a Comment