ABL Power Rankings: Week 5, 2010

EDIT: The original graphic posted was incorrect. Even though there were ties for first and fifth place, it listed the Miners as second place and the Fire as sixth, as if it were the standard 1-6 ranking. The graphic has been corrected. The teams in question are listed where they are due to alphabetical order. Thank you.

Here we are, five full weeks into the Alaska Baseball League season, and rushing headlong down the stretch toward the crowning of our next league champion. With this week in the books, the league is looking like it's been split into two camps. On the top are the Panners, Miners and Oilers, engaged in a tooth-and-nail battle for the ABL crown that could go right down to the wire. Lumped at the bottom are the Bucs, Pilots and Fire, who are seeing their hopes for a league championship slowly fading. The spread within each grouping is a mere 2 1/2 games,  but the distance between them is a very significant eight. On the other hand, no one is mathematically eliminated, and we all know that strange things are done 'neath the midnight sun...

The power rankings this week may not be as exciting as the three-way battle for the title, but they're pretty exciting as far as these things go. There are a few surprises to be found in the rankings this week:

At the top of the rankings, the Goldpanners and Miners find themselves locked in a 111-point tie for first place. The Panners stumbled after putting up an enormous streak and dropped two consecutive games, but they've come back to win their last five consecutive. The Miners, on the other hand, have lost one more game than the Fairbanks club and find themselves half a game back in the official standings, but they've been slightly hotter as of late, posting seven straight wins. The Oilers have dropped back to third place in the power rankings as well as the official standings as they dropped some very significant games to the Goldpanners this week. This was the same clash of the titans that ended the Goldpanners' streak and allowed the Miners to slip within 1/2 game of first place.

ABL Power Rankings: Week 4, 2010

It's been a wild week for Alaska Baseball, on the field and in our unofficial power rankings. We've got many teams switching places; some teams on the rise, while others are on the decline.

The rankings this week look pretty close to the official league standings, so I've decided to include the calculated "power points" in the table to illustrate that while the standings at the top of the league might be close, one team is running away with the power rankings for the past week.


Moving Up: 

The Goldpanners are the big story here. They're sitting atop the league standings right now; officially they're only one game up on the Miners and Oilers. But in my calculated power rankings, they are way out in front this week. The ranking formula takes into account both streak and the team's last ten wins and losses. The Goldpanners are riding an eight-game winning streak and have gone 9-1 in their last ten league games. After a mediocre start to the year, the Panners are charging full steam ahead and aren't looking back, which makes them the #1 ranked team this week.

ABL Power Rankings: Week 3, 2010

This week's power rankings look wildly different than last weeks, and somewhat different than the overall league standings. The big difference is that the Oilers have fallen to third place, behind the Goldpanners, in the power rankings. This is due mostly to the fact that the Panners started slow and have been quite hot lately, whereas the Oilers started out strong and have stumbled a little bit. Both have gone 6-4 in their last ten league games, and the difference between second and third place in this week's ranking is so small it's almost insignificant. This next week will be big for both teams. (Again, these rankings are just for fun, and not representative of the official league standings...the league standings are only part of this equation.)

Rank	Team	Trend	Notes
1	Miners	+	The Miners have been firing on all cylinders and recently leapfrogged the Oilers in the standings (and the power rankings). Their guys have been red hot from top to bottom; no one is slumping on this team.
2	Goldpanners	+	The Panners started off slow, dropping their first two games, but have gone six-for-eight in league play and ten for twelve overall since.
3	Oilers	-	The Oilers fell to third place in the ranking this week, just missing second by a whisker. The fact that they've stumbled a bit recently has hurt them, but they'll look to battle back to the top spot.
4	Glacier Pilots	+	The Glacier Pilots have surged as of late, taking three of their last four games on the strength of hot players such as Trevor Hairgrove.
5	Bucs	-	The Bucs have stalled this week, unable to keep pace because of a schedule that pits them against tough league opponents and an abundance of exhibition teams. If they can get on a roll, they could surge up the standings.
6	Fire	o	The Fire got a promising win over the Pilots on Thursday, but they've struggled to get rolling, forced to struggle against long road trips and bad weather at home, which has forced them into numerous double-headers.

ABL Power Rankings: Week 2, 2010

The power rankings for week two are in and...yep...they look exactly like the league standings! I can think of a couple reasons for this; mainly it has to do with the criteria for ranking which is determined from league record, last ten league games, and streak. Since not every team has played ten league games yet, the last ten and complete league standings are identical. And the only teams to put together any sort of appreciable streak are the ones at the very top and the very bottom.

On the other hand, the power rankings look a little bit different from last week, mostly be virtue of the fact that the Fire have plummeted to the bottom, buoying the Panners, Pilots and Bucs in the process. It's worth nothing that the schedules to this point have not been very even and they've been full of exhibition matches (which I do not count for these rankings) so once we're plunging headlong into July things will stabilize a bit.

So, without further ado, here's the rankings, complete with a little note on how they got there and where they're headed. I'm probably not headed to the ballpark again until Friday when I see the Miners at Bucs. So if you'll be there, let me know and maybe come say hi!

Rank	Team	Trend	Notes
1	Oilers	Even	The Oilers are coming off a four-game sweep of the Fire; this team has been hot from top to bottom. With Wittels onboard, they should get even better.
2	Miners	Even	The Miners continue to keep pace with the Oilers, falling just short of their mark, but with a game in hand. With a team ERA of 1.45 and 8 batters hitting over .300, the Miners are tough to beat.
3	Goldpanners	+	After dropping their first two games, the Goldpanners went 3-1 to come away with a road trip split. Hot-hitting Mike Tauchman has led the way on the offense.
4	Bucs	+	The Bucs have been victims of some close losses and a tough schedule. They've lost several games by two runs or less; their only "blowout" losses have come against the red-hot Miners. They'll improve as the season progresses.
5	Glacier Pilots	+	The Pilots picked up a couple wins this week to help get them on track; they'll be looking to pick up some wins on the road against the Fire and Goldpanners this week.
6	Fire	_	The Fire have faltered since winning their first league game; the offense has rallied but their pitching has surrendered five or more runs in five of their seven league games.

ABL Power Rankings: Week 1, 2010

I'm proud to announce a new regular-season weekly feature here at 49th State Hardball, the weekly power rankings. This is pretty much a just-for-fun ranking, similar to those made popular in football but also in MLB baseball, etc., to give you an idea of not just who has the best record, but who has the most dominant team of late.

The rankings are based mostly on a mathematical formula. At it's core, the formula takes into account a team's overall record, last ten games, and winning/losing streak, but I have included a "fudge factor" in that formula which allows me to tweak them to my pleasing. Most of the time I don't intend to use this, as long as the formula works as planned, but this week I did because not every team has played the same amount of league games and therefor it gave the 1-0 Fire the top ranking by a very wide margin. I thought that was kind of dumb, so I basically just switched the Fire and the Oilers around.

Rank	Team	Trend	Notes
1	Oilers	--	The Oilers got off to a fast start, firing on all cylinders. Their hitting and pitching has been solid and they opened the season on a 4-game roll before dropping a doubleheader pair against the Goldpanners to split the four-game series.
2	Miners	--	The Miners took two of three in the preseason against the Pilots and then continued to roll, taking another game from each Anchorage team.
3	Fire	--	The Fire have only played one league game, but it was a 7-3 win over the Pilots fresh on the heels of their undefeated California preseason swing.
4	Goldpanners	--	The Goldpanner rolled into Kenai without any warm- up games to their credit, but managed to split the series 2-2 with the red-hot Oilers.
5	Bucs	--	The Bucs' efforts have largely been for naught so far, but they have been the victims of a few close games and did score a victory over the cross-town rival Pilots. They'll get some more bounces going their way soon.
6	Glacier Pilots	--	The Pilots have had some trouble getting their bats going so far in the season, but have been hamstrung by a short-handed roster and are poised to bounce back.

On a personal note, I'll be at the Fire @ Miners game in Palmer tonight. If you wanna come say hi, I'll be running about snapping photos and scribbling down notes like a madman. If you want to punch me in the face because you don't like what I wrote about your favorite player or team, I'll be the guy who's 6'10" with 290lb of raw muscle, so feel free to track me down and pick a fight. Yep. That's me.